Electric Surge
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.74
12,898 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.97 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.89%
782 openings, odds method
Variance
7.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 782 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $523 871,401 BUX | 7.5% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| Sticker | Zeus (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · Exotic | 1 in 40 | $51.92 86,498 BUX | 18.6% | 11 | 19.6 | 0.56× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $50.54 84,199 BUX | 18.1% | 15 | 19.6 | 0.77× |
| Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $39.11 65,157 BUX | 28.1% | 33 | 39.1 | 0.84× |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $28.54 47,547 BUX | 20.5% | 44 | 39.1 | 1.13× |
| Sticker | Chicken of the Skysticker · high | 84.9% | $0.59 982 BUX | 7.2% | 677 | 663.9 | 1.02× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.7412,898 BUX$28.5447,547 BUX3.69x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.74 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%Exotic 2.5%classified 2.5%Classified 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%high 84.9%best hit $523 (67.56x)