Fuel Fusion
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.78
11,291 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $6.10 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.67%
90 openings, odds method
Variance
26.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 90 openings and 9.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified | 1 in 1,000 | $1,033 1,720,678 BUX | 16.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $80.16 133,546 BUX | 32.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 13 | $16.24 27,055 BUX | 20.0% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 10.4% | $5.49 9,146 BUX | 9.4% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $4.18 6,963 BUX | 8.6% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.89× |
| AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff | 14.0% | $2.34 3,898 BUX | 5.4% | 13 | 12.6 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 17.0% | $1.12 1,865 BUX | 3.1% | 19 | 15.3 | 1.24× |
| M249 | Magma (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 18.0% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 2.6% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× |
| Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 18.0% | $0.42 699 BUX | 1.2% | 16 | 16.2 | 0.99× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$6.7811,291 BUX$5.499,146 BUX0.81x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$6.7811,291 BUX$1.121,865 BUX0.17x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$6.7811,291 BUX$5.499,146 BUX0.81x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$6.7811,291 BUX$1.121,865 BUX0.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.78 | 90.01% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.1%covert 2.5%Restricted 34.9%classified 12.5%#8847ff 14.0%Mil Spec Grade 18.0%mil spec 18.0%best hit —