Fortune's Favor
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.12
41,857 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $22.61 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.57%
144 openings, odds method
Variance
13.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 144 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,857 | $3,604 6,003,847 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,538 | $1,958 3,262,011 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 44 | $212 353,691 BUX | 21.1% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.85× |
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 22 | $73.94 123,184 BUX | 14.7% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |
| MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $62.99 104,941 BUX | 16.7% | 14 | 8.6 | 1.62× |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 13 | $50.00 83,300 BUX | 16.6% | 14 | 10.8 | 1.30× |
| StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 79.7% | $5.58 9,296 BUX | 19.7% | 107 | 114.7 | 0.93× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$25.1241,857 BUX$5.589,296 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$25.1241,857 BUX$5.589,296 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$25.1241,857 BUX$50.0083,300 BUX1.99x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$25.1241,857 BUX$5.589,296 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$25.1241,857 BUX$5.589,296 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$25.1241,857 BUX$5.589,296 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$25.1241,857 BUX$5.589,296 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$25.1241,857 BUX$5.589,296 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$25.1241,857 BUX$50.0083,300 BUX1.99x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$25.1241,857 BUX$50.0083,300 BUX1.99x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $25.12 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 2.3%Restricted 84.2%restricted 6.0%Classified 7.5%best hit —