Death Awaits
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.43
9,048 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4.89 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.93%
293 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 293 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $749 1,248,267 BUX | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 101 | $60.25 100,376 BUX | 12.2% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | DeadFox (Gold) | London 2018sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $53.21 88,647 BUX | 21.8% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.37× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 1 in 33 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 12.0% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.02× |
| P90 | Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $9.86 16,426 BUX | 12.1% | 17 | 17.6 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $4.16 6,930 BUX | 17.0% | 64 | 58.6 | 1.09× |
| SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 24.0% | $2.49 4,148 BUX | 12.2% | 58 | 70.3 | 0.82× |
| MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 44.0% | $1.24 2,065 BUX | 11.2% | 134 | 128.9 | 1.04× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.43 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 1.0%Extraordinary 2.0%blue 3.0%restricted 30.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%Restricted 44.0%best hit —