The Essence of Love
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.01
15,008 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8.11 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.46%
660 openings, odds method
Variance
12.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 660 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 100,000 | $3,048 5,077,484 BUX | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $282 469,212 BUX | 17.4% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare | 1 in 200 | $281 468,612 BUX | 17.3% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $55.96 93,229 BUX | 20.7% | 19 | 19.8 | 0.96× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $38.89 64,790 BUX | 24.0% | 37 | 33.0 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $4.20 6,997 BUX | 5.2% | 51 | 66.0 | 0.77× |
| Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff | 30.0% | $1.99 3,315 BUX | 7.4% | 199 | 198.0 | 1.01× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red)graffiti · base | 51.0% | $1.22 2,032 BUX | 7.7% | 350 | 336.6 | 1.04× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red)graffiti · baseHALAMADRID$9.0115,008 BUX$1.222,032 BUX0.14x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendarykdeen$9.0115,008 BUX$4.206,997 BUX0.47x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.01 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 3.5%rare 0.5%covert 5.0%Legendary 10.0%#8847ff 30.0%base 51.0%best hit —