Moonlight Mysteries
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.85
13,079 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.07 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.60%
560 openings, odds method
Variance
13.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 560 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $309 514,327 BUX | 4.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $241 401,056 BUX | 6.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 333 | $200 333,200 BUX | 8.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 250 | $135 225,693 BUX | 7.7% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 25 | $112 186,025 BUX | 63.2% | 20 | 22.4 | 0.89× |
| Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $4.04 6,730 BUX | 5.7% | 56 | 56.0 | 1.00× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 85.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 3.7% | 478 | 476.0 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$7.8513,079 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.04x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$7.8513,079 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.04x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$7.8513,079 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.04x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$7.8513,079 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.04x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$7.8513,079 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.04x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$7.8513,079 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.04x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradekdeen$7.8513,079 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.04x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$7.8513,079 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.85 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 0.2%Covert 0.7%rare 4.0%consumer 10.0%Industrial Grade 85.0%best hit —