Magical Encounter
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.02
25,029 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $13.52 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.79%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 40 openings and 8.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $516 858,839 BUX | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 250 | $167 278,571 BUX | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $44.12 73,503 BUX | 16.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $41.85 69,722 BUX | 15.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $33.37 55,594 BUX | 24.7% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× |
| Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary | 15.0% | $20.12 33,519 BUX | 22.3% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight | 64.5% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 12.4% | 26 | 25.8 | 1.01× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinaryuser-a40f40$15.0225,029 BUX$20.1233,519 BUX1.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.02 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.1%Covert 0.4%classified 10.0%extraordinary 15.0%blueLight 64.5%best hit —