Bloody Phantom
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$40.74
67,870 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $36.66 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.85%
103 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 103 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $544 905,704 BUX | 14.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.94× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $319 531,753 BUX | 17.4% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.46× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $112 187,075 BUX | 15.3% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.78× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $52.60 87,631 BUX | 11.5% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $49.46 82,400 BUX | 10.8% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 38.0% | $16.89 28,138 BUX | 17.5% | 37 | 39.1 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 38.0% | $12.23 20,375 BUX | 12.7% | 42 | 39.1 | 1.07× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$40.7467,870 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$40.7467,870 BUX$12.2320,375 BUX0.30x
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$40.7467,870 BUX$49.4682,400 BUX1.21x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$40.7467,870 BUX$12.2320,375 BUX0.30x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$40.7467,870 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$40.7467,870 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedKronerkongen$40.7467,870 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$40.7467,870 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.41x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $40.74 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 14.0%Extraordinary 2.0%classified 8.0%Classified 38.0%Mil Spec Grade 38.0%best hit $544 (13.34x)