Frontline Forces
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$109.18
181,901 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $98.27 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.88%
102 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
60.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 40 | $376 626,266 BUX | 9.6% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.18× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 40 | $356 592,446 BUX | 9.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $202 336,848 BUX | 10.3% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $150 250,583 BUX | 15.3% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 40.0% | $70.80 117,952 BUX | 28.8% | 43 | 40.8 | 1.05× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 40.0% | $66.27 110,405 BUX | 27.0% | 40 | 40.8 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$109181,901 BUX$66.27110,405 BUX0.61x
StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$109181,901 BUX$66.27110,405 BUX0.61x
P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrialKronerkongen$109181,901 BUX$70.80117,952 BUX0.65x
StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$109181,901 BUX$66.27110,405 BUX0.61x
StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$109181,901 BUX$66.27110,405 BUX0.61x
P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrialKronerkongen$109181,901 BUX$70.80117,952 BUX0.65x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $109 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 2.5%Covert 2.5%restricted 5.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%industrial 40.0%covert 40.0%best hit —