Crystal Cascade
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$204.59
340,846 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $184.13 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
49.28%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 333 | $1,712 2,852,458 BUX | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 143 | $1,460 2,431,593 BUX | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 67 | $799 1,331,183 BUX | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 50 | $752 1,253,381 BUX | 8.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 18 | $431 717,396 BUX | 12.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 14 | $381 635,379 BUX | 14.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 13 | $348 579,884 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 10.0% | $205 340,813 BUX | 11.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 65.0% | $66.25 110,372 BUX | 23.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $205 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 21.5%sunny 5.5%#ffd700 8.0%classified 65.0%best hit —