Blizzard Bounty
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.04
8,390 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $4.53 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.78%
764 openings, odds method
Variance
13.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 764 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $236 393,292 BUX | 26.0% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 67 | $62.72 104,491 BUX | 20.8% | 20 | 11.5 | 1.75× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $16.50 27,489 BUX | 18.2% | 37 | 38.2 | 0.97× |
| AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $4.58 7,630 BUX | 7.1% | 61 | 53.5 | 1.14× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 11.0% | $2.87 4,781 BUX | 7.0% | 85 | 84.0 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Snowfall (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 25.0% | $1.36 2,265 BUX | 7.5% | 200 | 191.0 | 1.05× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $1.32 2,199 BUX | 7.3% | 178 | 191.0 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | Freeze (Lenticular)sticker · Extraordinary | 25.0% | $1.12 1,865 BUX | 6.2% | 181 | 191.0 | 0.95× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$5.048,390 BUX$1.322,199 BUX0.26x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$5.048,390 BUX$1.322,199 BUX0.26x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$5.048,390 BUX$1.322,199 BUX0.26x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$5.048,390 BUX$1.322,199 BUX0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.04 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.5%industrial 1.5%Legendary 5.0%restricted 7.0%Restricted 11.0%remarkable 25.0%mil spec 25.0%Extraordinary 25.0%best hit —