Indigo Infiltration
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.25
62,051 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $33.52 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.97%
400 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 400 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $671 1,118,452 BUX | 2.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 250 | $564 939,890 BUX | 6.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $263 437,874 BUX | 7.8% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $261 434,142 BUX | 15.5% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 33 | $188 312,524 BUX | 16.8% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.33× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $84.93 141,493 BUX | 12.7% | 16 | 20.0 | 0.80× |
| Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $39.41 65,657 BUX | 17.6% | 61 | 60.0 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade | 25.0% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 8.9% | 109 | 100.0 | 1.09× |
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 48.5% | $8.18 13,627 BUX | 11.8% | 185 | 194.0 | 0.95× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertKronerkongen$37.2562,051 BUX$6711,118,452 BUX18.02x
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$37.2562,051 BUX$564939,890 BUX15.15x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeKronerkongen$37.2562,051 BUX$39.4165,657 BUX1.06x
Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$37.2562,051 BUX$39.4165,657 BUX1.06x
Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeKronerkongen$37.2562,051 BUX$39.4165,657 BUX1.06x
Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$37.2562,051 BUX$39.4165,657 BUX1.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $37.25 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.1%classified 0.4%Covert 3.0%Industrial Grade 40.0%restricted 48.5%best hit $671 (18.02x)