Spooky Specters
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$248.88
414,628 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $223.99 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
26.66%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
16.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 133 | $9,468 15,774,487 BUX | 31.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 67 | $4,962 8,267,491 BUX | 33.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 15 | $723 1,204,518 BUX | 21.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 10.0% | $147 244,385 BUX | 6.5% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 11.5% | $96.56 160,868 BUX | 5.0% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $19.38 32,287 BUX | 1.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Curse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 15.5% | $15.20 25,323 BUX | 1.1% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.61× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 39.3% | $1.29 2,149 BUX | 0.2% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$249414,628 BUX$7231,204,518 BUX2.91x
Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specBrad Pitt$249414,628 BUX$7231,204,518 BUX2.91x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$249414,628 BUX$7231,204,518 BUX2.91x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $249 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 10.8%contraband 1.5%mil spec 21.5%Classified 11.5%restricted 15.5%#8847ff 39.3%best hit $723 (2.91x)