Outdoor Feast
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.40
12,333 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.66 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.76%
134 openings, odds method
Variance
13.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 134 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 134 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 500 | $447 744,985 BUX | 13.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 125 | $153 255,031 BUX | 18.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 67 | $99.89 166,416 BUX | 22.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| P2000 | Grassland (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $11.66 19,425 BUX | 13.1% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.09× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $6.92 11,528 BUX | 10.4% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AUG (Jungle Green)graffiti · Base Grade | 11.5% | $5.77 9,612 BUX | 10.0% | 17 | 15.4 | 1.10× |
| Nova | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 14.0% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 5.5% | 25 | 18.8 | 1.33× |
| MP9 | Green Plaid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $2.08 3,465 BUX | 4.7% | 16 | 20.1 | 0.80× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Noodlesgraffiti · High Grade | 39.5% | $0.35 583 BUX | 2.1% | 52 | 52.9 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AUG (Jungle Green)graffiti · Base GradeDrakun$7.4012,333 BUX$5.779,612 BUX0.78x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.40 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.2%covert 0.8%industrial 19.0%Base Grade 11.5%consumer 14.0%Consumer Grade 15.0%High Grade 39.5%best hit —