Digital Domination
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.12
23,520 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.71 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.44%
127 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (6.91% – 87.96%, 127 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 80 | $202 336,848 BUX | 19.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $128 212,931 BUX | 25.1% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 25 | $86.81 144,625 BUX | 27.3% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $10.19 16,976 BUX | 12.0% | 20 | 19.1 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | electronic (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · Extraordinary | 20.0% | $5.12 8,529 BUX | 8.1% | 25 | 25.4 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $2.44 4,065 BUX | 4.8% | 34 | 31.8 | 1.07× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 32.3% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 2.7% | 44 | 41.0 | 1.07× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$14.1223,520 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.1223,520 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.08x
Sticker | electronic (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · Extraordinary$14.1223,520 BUX$5.128,529 BUX0.36x
StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.1223,520 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.1223,520 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.12 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 26.3%covert 2.5%Classified 4.0%classified 15.0%Extraordinary 20.0%Restricted 32.3%best hit —