Abstract Visions

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.89

26,470 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $14.30 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.65%

150 openings, odds method

Variance

4.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

96.60%±37.90116 openings

30 days

105.65%±33.33150 openings

since tracking started

105.65%±33.33150 openings

43.0%247.8%452.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	247.98%±204.1	—	odds
7d	116	96.60%±37.9	+0.3σ	odds
30d	150	105.65%±33.3	+0.9σ	odds
All	150	105.65%±33.3	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$144 239,204 BUX	20.1%	2	3.0	0.67×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$123 204,951 BUX	25.8%	6	4.5	1.33×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$101 168,615 BUX	28.3%	10	6.0	1.67×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$10.94 18,226 BUX	6.9%	9	13.5	0.67×
Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable	10.5%	$8.67 14,444 BUX	6.4%	11	15.8	0.70×
Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic	15.5%	$3.50 5,831 BUX	3.8%	28	23.3	1.20×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	18.0%	$2.71 4,514 BUX	3.4%	31	27.0	1.15×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	18.5%	$2.18 3,631 BUX	2.8%	20	27.8	0.72×
Sticker \| Ethereal Gaze (Foil)sticker · Legendary	19.5%	$1.85 3,082 BUX	2.5%	33	29.3	1.13×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic$15.8926,470 BUX$3.505,831 BUX0.22x6h

Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable$15.8926,470 BUX$8.6714,444 BUX0.55x6h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$15.8926,470 BUX$144239,204 BUX9.04x6h

Sticker | Ethereal Gaze (Foil)sticker · Legendarykdeen$15.8926,470 BUX$1.853,082 BUX0.12x6h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$15.8926,470 BUX$2.714,514 BUX0.17x1d

AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classifiedkdeen$15.8926,470 BUX$10.9418,226 BUX0.69x1d

Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable$15.8926,470 BUX$8.6714,444 BUX0.55x1d

Sticker | Ethereal Gaze (Foil)sticker · Legendary$15.8926,470 BUX$1.853,082 BUX0.12x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$15.89	90.00%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.0%classified 13.0%remarkable 10.5%exotic 15.5%Restricted 18.0%restricted 18.5%Legendary 19.5%best hit —