Hazardous Materials
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.97
24,932 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $13.47 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.75%
70 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 70 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 125 | $220 367,036 BUX | 13.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 1 in 83 | $206 342,812 BUX | 18.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $72.49 120,768 BUX | 21.5% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 22 | $68.79 114,604 BUX | 23.0% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.63× |
| Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $13.68 22,790 BUX | 10.2% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Toxic (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 13.5% | $3.58 5,964 BUX | 3.6% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.85× |
| Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 13.5% | $3.49 5,814 BUX | 3.5% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 14.5% | $2.27 3,781 BUX | 2.4% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.08× |
| P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 19.0% | $1.59 2,648 BUX | 2.2% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.05× |
| StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 19.0% | $1.52 2,532 BUX | 2.1% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$14.9724,932 BUX$1.522,532 BUX0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.97 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.8%Classified 1.2%restricted 36.5%mil spec 23.5%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%Legendary 13.5%industrial 14.5%best hit —