Laughter Loadout
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.73
11,216 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.06 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.68%
237 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $101 168,399 BUX | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 125 | $75.06 125,049 BUX | 9.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $55.25 92,046 BUX | 9.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| USP-S | Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $37.90 63,141 BUX | 15.6% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 18 | $22.15 36,901 BUX | 20.1% | 8 | 13.0 | 0.61× |
| Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $3.49 5,814 BUX | 14.4% | 67 | 59.3 | 1.13× |
| StatTrak™ MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $3.48 5,797 BUX | 14.4% | 54 | 59.3 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 40.0% | $1.99 3,315 BUX | 13.1% | 97 | 94.8 | 1.02× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffkdeen$6.7311,216 BUX$3.485,797 BUX0.52x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.73 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%restricted 25.8%classified 3.5%#d32ee6 5.5%#8847ff 25.0%industrial 40.0%best hit —