Crimson Gambit
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$44.11
73,480 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $39.70 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.81%
553 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 553 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendary | 1 in 100 | $646 1,076,219 BUX | 16.3% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.27× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $101 167,782 BUX | 5.1% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $81.14 135,179 BUX | 6.1% | 14 | 16.6 | 0.84× |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $73.96 123,217 BUX | 7.5% | 27 | 22.1 | 1.22× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $70.57 117,569 BUX | 7.1% | 28 | 22.1 | 1.27× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $52.60 87,631 BUX | 13.3% | 54 | 55.3 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | DEVIL (Foil) | Cologne 2016sticker · Exotic | 38.0% | $24.22 40,350 BUX | 23.2% | 208 | 210.1 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade | 38.0% | $22.48 37,451 BUX | 21.5% | 205 | 210.1 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendaryKronerkongen$44.1173,480 BUX$6461,076,219 BUX14.65x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendaryKronerkongen$44.1173,480 BUX$6461,076,219 BUX14.65x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendaryfazzxn$44.1173,480 BUX$6461,076,219 BUX14.65x
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial GradeKronerkongen$44.1173,480 BUX$22.4837,451 BUX0.51x
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial GradeKronerkongen$44.1173,480 BUX$22.4837,451 BUX0.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $44.11 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.0%covert 12.0%mil spec 3.0%classified 4.0%restricted 4.0%Exotic 38.0%Industrial Grade 38.0%best hit $646 (14.65x)