Stratospheric Strike

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.57

7,606 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $4.11 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.09%

1,330 openings, odds method

Variance

19.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

11 openings · below min

7 days

89.93%±28.71916 openings

30 days

83.09%±23.821,330 openings

since tracking started

83.09%±23.821,330 openings

-0.5%135.8%272.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11	9.64%±262.0	—	odds
7d	916	89.93%±28.7	−0.0σ	odds
30d	1,330	83.09%±23.8	−0.6σ	odds
All	1,330	83.09%±23.8	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,330 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$381 635,362 BUX	9.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
Sticker \| Cloud9 G2A (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · Remarkable	1 in 500	$264 440,557 BUX	12.9%	1	2.7	0.38×
Sticker \| Cloud9 (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · Exotic	1 in 143	$106 175,896 BUX	18.0%	16	9.3	1.72×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$73.92 123,150 BUX	18.0%	11	13.3	0.83×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$7.16 11,928 BUX	7.0%	62	53.2	1.17×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$6.79 11,312 BUX	6.6%	58	53.2	1.09×
XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$5.83 9,712 BUX	7.1%	51	66.5	0.77×
P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$5.52 9,196 BUX	6.7%	61	66.5	0.92×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert	1 in 17	$4.49 7,480 BUX	6.6%	83	79.8	1.04×
MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	74.0%	$0.44 733 BUX	7.9%	987	984.2	1.00×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Cloud9 G2A (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · Remarkable$4.577,606 BUX$264440,557 BUX57.92x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.577,606 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.10x7h

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil specuser-81c4ab$4.577,606 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.10x7h

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.577,606 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.10x16h

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil spectenshi$4.577,606 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.10x16h

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.577,606 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.10x20h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$4.57	90.00%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.1%Remarkable 0.2%Exotic 0.7%classified 1.0%Classified 4.0%Legendary 4.0%restricted 10.0%Covert 6.0%mil spec 74.0%best hit $264 (57.92x)