Supreme Status
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.07
35,110 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.97 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.03%
341 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 341 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $1,508 2,511,728 BUX | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 667 | $741 1,234,805 BUX | 5.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Sticker | shroud (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 400 | $470 783,703 BUX | 6.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $197 327,885 BUX | 20.8% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× |
| Sticker | cajunb (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $107 177,978 BUX | 22.5% | 13 | 13.6 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | Liazz (Gold) | Katowice 2019sticker · Extraordinary | 18.6% | $27.00 44,982 BUX | 26.4% | 61 | 63.3 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | OG (Gold) | Rio 2022sticker · Extraordinary | 25.0% | $8.73 14,544 BUX | 11.5% | 97 | 85.3 | 1.14× |
| Sticker | Sico (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · Extraordinary | 50.0% | $1.05 1,749 BUX | 2.8% | 161 | 170.5 | 0.94× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Sico (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · ExtraordinaryKronerkongen$21.0735,110 BUX$1.051,749 BUX0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $21.07 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.1%Extraordinary 98.0%best hit —