Voyager's Vault
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.91
23,166 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.51 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.66%
92 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 92 openings and 9.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 500 | $423 704,518 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 333 | $335 557,776 BUX | 8.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $116 194,022 BUX | 14.0% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert | 1 in 50 | $86.57 144,225 BUX | 13.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 17 | $38.60 64,307 BUX | 18.5% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× |
| SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $15.25 25,406 BUX | 12.2% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× |
| SG 553 | Traveler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 30.0% | $7.25 12,078 BUX | 17.4% | 33 | 27.6 | 1.20× |
| G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 50.0% | $2.34 3,898 BUX | 9.3% | 46 | 46.0 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.91 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 2.5%classified 1.5%pink 6.0%restricted 60.0%Industrial Grade 30.0%best hit —