Sandstorm Saga

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.30

8,827 BUX

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $4.77 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.59%

1,011 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

44 openings · below min

7 days

94.63%±24.57201 openings

30 days

91.59%±10.951,011 openings

since tracking started

91.59%±10.951,011 openings

10.0%65.0%120.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	44	63.27%±52.5	—	odds
7d	201	94.63%±24.6	+0.4σ	odds
30d	1,011	91.59%±11.0	+0.3σ	odds
All	1,011	91.59%±11.0	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,011 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$439 732,190 BUX	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$49.97 83,250 BUX	20.9%	24	20.1	1.19×
Nova \| Quick Sand (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$20.33 33,869 BUX	17.1%	32	40.4	0.79×
Souvenir MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 17	$15.56 25,922 BUX	19.6%	67	60.7	1.10×
Souvenir Nova \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 13	$10.98 18,292 BUX	18.4%	83	80.9	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	30.0%	$1.95 3,248 BUX	12.3%	292	303.3	0.96×
G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	50.0%	$1.04 1,732 BUX	10.9%	513	505.5	1.01×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$5.308,827 BUX$1.041,732 BUX0.20x10h

SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.308,827 BUX$1.953,248 BUX0.37x10h

G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$5.308,827 BUX$1.041,732 BUX0.20x10h

G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil speckdeen$5.308,827 BUX$1.041,732 BUX0.20x10h

G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$5.308,827 BUX$1.041,732 BUX0.20x17h

Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$5.308,827 BUX$10.9818,292 BUX2.07x17h

SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.308,827 BUX$1.953,248 BUX0.37x17h

Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Gradetenshi$5.308,827 BUX$10.9818,292 BUX2.07x17h

SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.308,827 BUX$1.953,248 BUX0.37x17h

G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$5.308,827 BUX$1.041,732 BUX0.20x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$5.30	89.99%	7

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.0%violet 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%Classified 6.0%Consumer Grade 38.0%mil spec 50.0%best hit —