Are you lucky?
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.91
13,173 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.12 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.72%
203 openings, odds method
Variance
26.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 203 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $3,643 6,070,071 BUX | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $658 1,096,178 BUX | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $209 348,577 BUX | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 119 | $92.42 153,971 BUX | 10.9% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.76× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic | 19.0% | $12.96 21,591 BUX | 34.6% | 32 | 38.6 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic | 35.0% | $4.85 8,080 BUX | 23.9% | 71 | 71.0 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Dragon (Foil)sticker · exotic | 45.0% | $2.84 4,731 BUX | 18.0% | 97 | 91.4 | 1.06× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.91 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%classified 0.8%exotic 99.0%best hit —