Bubble Blast
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.56
15,920 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8.60 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.93%
178 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 178 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $271 450,702 BUX | 15.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $70.66 117,719 BUX | 8.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.69× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $70.57 117,569 BUX | 8.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $52.60 87,631 BUX | 15.3% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $38.60 64,307 BUX | 22.4% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $9.78 16,293 BUX | 11.4% | 16 | 17.8 | 0.90× |
| Sticker | Bubble Gum Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 20.0% | $5.12 8,529 BUX | 11.9% | 41 | 35.6 | 1.15× |
| PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $1.53 2,548 BUX | 4.4% | 55 | 44.5 | 1.24× |
| Sticker | Water Gunsticker · High Grade | 35.0% | $0.59 982 BUX | 2.4% | 51 | 62.3 | 0.82× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Bubble Gum Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · RemarkableKronerkongen$9.5615,920 BUX$5.128,529 BUX0.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.56 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%restricted 2.0%pink 5.0%classified 10.0%Remarkable 20.0%mil spec 25.0%High Grade 35.0%best hit —