Radiant Dawn
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.59
57,632 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $31.13 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.53%
58 openings, odds method
Variance
10.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 58 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 500 | $2,217 3,694,055 BUX | 14.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 40 | $255 425,046 BUX | 20.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $218 363,587 BUX | 21.0% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.87× |
| FAMAS | Sundown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $109 182,327 BUX | 17.6% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $25.42 42,349 BUX | 8.2% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 11.0% | $17.87 29,771 BUX | 6.3% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× |
| Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 12.5% | $11.46 19,092 BUX | 4.6% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.83× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $6.51 10,845 BUX | 2.9% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× |
| Sticker | SunPayus (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · Extraordinary | 41.8% | $3.47 5,781 BUX | 4.7% | 21 | 24.2 | 0.87× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Sundown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec GradeKronerkongen$34.5957,632 BUX$109182,327 BUX3.16x
P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialKronerkongen$34.5957,632 BUX$17.8729,771 BUX0.52x
Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$34.5957,632 BUX$11.4619,092 BUX0.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $34.59 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExtraordinary 42.0%restricted 19.5%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%industrial 21.0%mil spec 12.5%best hit —