Phantom Operative
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.97
9,938 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $5.37 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.81%
355 openings, odds method
Variance
59.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 355 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 500 | $1,033 1,720,678 BUX | 38.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 13 | $10.07 16,776 BUX | 14.8% | 22 | 28.0 | 0.78× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 10 | $9.07 15,110 BUX | 16.7% | 31 | 35.1 | 0.88× |
| Sticker | Team Spirit (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · Remarkable | 10.0% | $7.05 11,745 BUX | 13.1% | 27 | 35.5 | 0.76× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 12.0% | $3.79 6,314 BUX | 8.5% | 37 | 42.6 | 0.87× |
| StatTrak™ M249 | Spectre (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $0.85 1,416 BUX | 3.2% | 84 | 71.0 | 1.18× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 2.6% | 71 | 71.0 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 20.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 2.6% | 83 | 71.0 | 1.17× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$5.979,938 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.12x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$5.979,938 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.12x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedkdeen$5.979,938 BUX$9.0715,110 BUX1.52x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$5.979,938 BUX$9.0715,110 BUX1.52x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$5.979,938 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.12x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$5.979,938 BUX$3.796,314 BUX0.64x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradekdeen$5.979,938 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.12x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$5.979,938 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.12x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$5.979,938 BUX$10.0716,776 BUX1.69x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.97 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExtraordinary 0.2%Restricted 27.9%Classified 9.9%Remarkable 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 52.0%best hit —