Poisonous Payload
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.70
11,160 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.53%
180 openings, odds method
Variance
22.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 32
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 1 in 667 | $757 1,260,878 BUX | 18.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Souvenir SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $66.37 110,572 BUX | 33.0% | 9 | 5.4 | 1.67× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 17 | $22.04 36,718 BUX | 21.9% | 12 | 10.8 | 1.11× |
| Sticker | Toxic Flow (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 10.0% | $7.65 12,744 BUX | 12.7% | 20 | 18.0 | 1.11× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 6.5% | 24 | 27.0 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare | 21.9% | $0.72 1,199 BUX | 2.6% | 32 | 39.5 | 0.81× |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 21.9% | $0.66 1,099 BUX | 2.4% | 52 | 39.5 | 1.32× |
| Souvenir SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 21.9% | $0.55 916 BUX | 2.0% | 31 | 39.5 | 0.78× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.7011,160 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.7011,160 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil speckdeen$6.7011,160 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.10x
Souvenir SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$6.7011,160 BUX$0.55916 BUX0.08x
Souvenir SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$6.7011,160 BUX$0.55916 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.7011,160 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rarekdeen$6.7011,160 BUX$0.721,199 BUX0.11x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$6.7011,160 BUX$0.721,199 BUX0.11x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.7011,160 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.70 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.1%classified 3.0%mil spec 27.9%remarkable 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%Rare 21.9%Industrial Grade 21.9%best hit —