Timber Tactics
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.30
28,816 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $15.57 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
51.35%
122 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 200 | $419 698,004 BUX | 13.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 80 | $210 349,193 BUX | 16.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| Galil AR | Winter Forest (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $139 231,490 BUX | 17.9% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Grassland Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 40 | $82.95 138,194 BUX | 13.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| P2000 | Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $39.85 66,390 BUX | 10.2% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| Nova | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 25 | $39.07 65,090 BUX | 10.0% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.84× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 22.5% | $5.73 9,546 BUX | 8.3% | 20 | 27.4 | 0.73× |
| Sticker | WOOD7 (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · Extraordinary | 27.5% | $3.27 5,447 BUX | 5.8% | 36 | 33.6 | 1.07× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 35.8% | $1.83 3,048 BUX | 4.2% | 50 | 43.6 | 1.15× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $17.30 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.5%rare 1.3%Industrial Grade 2.0%industrial 38.3%restricted 4.0%Consumer Grade 4.0%consumer 22.5%Extraordinary 27.5%best hit —