Battle Scars

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$19.86

33,080 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $17.87 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.25%

148 openings, odds method

Variance

37.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 40

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

123 openings · below min

30 days

148 openings · below min

since tracking started

148 openings · below min

-0.5%306.3%613.0%

Small sample. 148 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	11.86%±600.3	—	odds
7d	123	72.71%±108.2	—	odds
30d	148	85.25%±98.7	—	odds
All	148	85.25%±98.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 148 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 400	$2,371 3,949,902 BUX	33.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 133	$249 414,850 BUX	10.5%	3	1.1	2.70×
P250 \| Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 67	$129 215,363 BUX	10.9%	4	2.2	1.80×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$68.45 114,037 BUX	15.3%	7	5.9	1.18×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 18	$47.95 79,884 BUX	14.8%	7	8.1	0.86×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 11	$16.89 28,138 BUX	8.5%	14	13.3	1.05×
P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	14.0%	$3.90 6,497 BUX	3.1%	23	20.7	1.11×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	16.0%	$2.03 3,381 BUX	1.8%	22	23.7	0.93×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	19.0%	$1.46 2,432 BUX	1.6%	30	28.1	1.07×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New)weapon · Rare	30.0%	$0.31 516 BUX	0.5%	38	44.4	0.86×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$19.8633,080 BUX$3.906,497 BUX0.20x9h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$19.8633,080 BUX$1.462,432 BUX0.07x9h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet$19.8633,080 BUX$2.033,381 BUX0.10x9h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violetuser-81c4ab$19.8633,080 BUX$2.033,381 BUX0.10x9h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$19.8633,080 BUX$68.45114,037 BUX3.45x1d

P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$19.8633,080 BUX$3.906,497 BUX0.20x1d

Souvenir Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$19.8633,080 BUX$47.9579,884 BUX2.41x1d

P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$19.8633,080 BUX$3.906,497 BUX0.20x1d

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet$19.8633,080 BUX$2.033,381 BUX0.10x1d

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New)weapon · Rare$19.8633,080 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.02x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$19.86	90.00%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.3%covert 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 20.5%classified 18.0%Consumer Grade 5.5%Classified 9.0%violet 16.0%Rare 30.0%best hit —