Cryptic Connection

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$13.85

23,080 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $12.47 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

67.50%

490 openings, odds method

Variance

17.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

61.51%±50.44264 openings

7 days

60.08%±39.43432 openings

30 days

67.50%±37.02490 openings

since tracking started

67.50%±37.02490 openings

10.5%61.5%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	264	61.51%±50.4	−1.1σ	odds
7d	432	60.08%±39.4	−1.5σ	odds
30d	490	67.50%±37.0	−1.2σ	odds
All	490	67.50%±37.0	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 490 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,562 2,601,492 BUX	12.5%	0	0.5	—
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 80	$256 426,745 BUX	25.7%	3	6.1	0.49×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$61.95 103,208 BUX	24.8%	24	24.5	0.98×
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$18.99 31,637 BUX	15.2%	53	49.0	1.08×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	11.5%	$14.03 23,373 BUX	12.9%	57	56.4	1.01×
Sticker \| Hidden Hero (Foil)sticker · Legendary	21.5%	$2.74 4,564 BUX	4.7%	97	105.3	0.92×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	25.0%	$1.08 1,799 BUX	2.2%	123	122.5	1.00×
Sticker \| Bomb Codesticker · High Grade	25.7%	$0.92 1,532 BUX	1.9%	133	125.7	1.06×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$13.8523,080 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.08x17h

Sticker | Bomb Codesticker · High Grade$13.8523,080 BUX$0.921,532 BUX0.07x17h

StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedKronerkongen$13.8523,080 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.08x17h

Sticker | Hidden Hero (Foil)sticker · Legendary$13.8523,080 BUX$2.744,564 BUX0.20x17h

Sticker | Bomb Codesticker · High Grade$13.8523,080 BUX$0.921,532 BUX0.07x17h

Sticker | Bomb Codesticker · High GradeKronerkongen$13.8523,080 BUX$0.921,532 BUX0.07x17h

StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$13.8523,080 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.08x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$13.85	90.00%	8

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 6.3%industrial 10.0%classified 11.5%Legendary 21.5%Restricted 25.0%High Grade 25.7%best hit —