Cosmic Conquest
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.03
15,043 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $8.13 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.41%
898 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 898 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 333 | $175 291,333 BUX | 6.5% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 143 | $128 212,931 BUX | 11.0% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $73.92 123,150 BUX | 18.2% | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $60.11 100,143 BUX | 22.2% | 25 | 26.9 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | Space Soldiers (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · Exotic | 13.0% | $18.38 30,621 BUX | 29.4% | 122 | 116.7 | 1.05× |
| MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 81.0% | $1.28 2,132 BUX | 12.8% | 726 | 727.4 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.03 | 90.01% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 0.3%covert 3.7%classified 2.0%Exotic 13.0%restricted 81.0%best hit —