Lava Flow
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.57
27,610 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.92 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.35%
80 openings, odds method
Variance
13.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 80 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $767 1,278,521 BUX | 25.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $293 487,654 BUX | 19.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 40 | $41.92 69,838 BUX | 7.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert | 1 in 20 | $14.64 24,390 BUX | 4.9% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $13.21 22,007 BUX | 4.4% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| Sticker | Eternal Fire (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic | 25.0% | $9.04 15,060 BUX | 15.2% | 23 | 20.0 | 1.15× |
| P250 | Red Rock (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 26.0% | $8.79 14,644 BUX | 15.3% | 24 | 20.8 | 1.15× |
| Sticker | Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic | 35.0% | $3.33 5,547 BUX | 7.8% | 24 | 28.0 | 0.86× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $16.57 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.5%Covert 7.5%remarkable 5.0%exotic 60.0%restricted 26.0%best hit —