Icebound Vault
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.55
12,584 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.80 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.94%
584 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 584 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000 | $522 869,885 BUX | 7.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015sticker · High Grade | 1 in 53 | $59.28 98,760 BUX | 16.6% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $22.31 37,168 BUX | 26.3% | 53 | 46.7 | 1.13× |
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $9.99 16,643 BUX | 22.0% | 91 | 87.6 | 1.04× |
| AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $4.58 7,630 BUX | 10.1% | 87 | 87.6 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 25.0% | $2.87 4,781 BUX | 10.6% | 142 | 146.0 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 35.0% | $1.32 2,199 BUX | 6.8% | 200 | 204.4 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$7.5512,584 BUX$2.874,781 BUX0.38x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$7.5512,584 BUX$2.874,781 BUX0.38x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.5512,584 BUX$1.322,199 BUX0.17x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil speckdeen$7.5512,584 BUX$1.322,199 BUX0.17x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$7.5512,584 BUX$2.874,781 BUX0.38x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.5512,584 BUX$1.322,199 BUX0.17x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$7.5512,584 BUX$2.874,781 BUX0.38x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$7.5512,584 BUX$2.874,781 BUX0.38x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$7.5512,584 BUX$22.3137,168 BUX2.95x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.5512,584 BUX$1.322,199 BUX0.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.55 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%High Grade 1.9%classified 8.0%Industrial Grade 15.0%restricted 15.0%Restricted 25.0%mil spec 35.0%best hit $522 (69.13x)