Spectral Signature
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.84
4,726 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $2.55 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.33%
1,457 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,457 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $28.89 48,130 BUX | 11.3% | 15 | 14.6 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | Team Spirit (Gold) | Stockholm 2021sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $23.78 39,617 BUX | 27.9% | 34 | 43.7 | 0.78× |
| Sticker | Team Spirit (Foil) | Katowice 2019sticker · exotic | 1 in 50 | $20.98 34,952 BUX | 16.4% | 36 | 29.1 | 1.24× |
| MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $6.39 10,645 BUX | 12.5% | 62 | 72.9 | 0.85× |
| SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $2.49 4,148 BUX | 5.9% | 79 | 87.4 | 0.90× |
| SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New)weapon · violet | 13.0% | $1.11 1,849 BUX | 5.7% | 189 | 189.4 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 35.0% | $0.78 1,299 BUX | 10.7% | 488 | 510.0 | 0.96× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 35.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 9.6% | 554 | 510.0 | 1.09× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.844,726 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.25x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.844,726 BUX$0.781,299 BUX0.27x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradeuser-81c4ab$2.844,726 BUX$0.781,299 BUX0.27x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.844,726 BUX$0.781,299 BUX0.27x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.844,726 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $2.84 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%Extraordinary 3.0%exotic 2.0%Legendary 5.0%restricted 6.0%violet 13.0%Mil Spec Grade 70.0%best hit —