Sorcery Supply
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.52
32,522 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.57 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
46.46%
44 openings, odds method
Variance
29.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 44 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,053 3,420,264 BUX | 11.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 250 | $1,308 2,179,327 BUX | 29.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| USP-S | Ancient Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 13 | $42.86 71,404 BUX | 18.3% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 10.0% | $28.89 48,130 BUX | 16.4% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary | 12.5% | $20.12 33,519 BUX | 14.3% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6 | 17.5% | $8.00 13,328 BUX | 8.0% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× |
| Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~music kit · High Grade | 26.0% | $0.71 1,182 BUX | 1.0% | 15 | 11.4 | 1.31× |
| SG 553 | Phantom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet | 26.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 0.5% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifieduser-6b253c$19.5232,522 BUX$28.8948,130 BUX1.48x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.52 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 12.9%Restricted 7.5%classified 10.0%#d32ee6 17.5%High Grade 26.0%violet 26.0%best hit —