Trippy Treasures
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.96
9,936 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $5.37 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.33%
836 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 836 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 100 | $92.11 153,455 BUX | 17.2% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.96× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 50 | $45.45 75,719 BUX | 16.9% | 13 | 16.7 | 0.78× |
| D Squadron Officer | NZSASagent · distinguished | 1 in 33 | $27.35 45,565 BUX | 15.3% | 23 | 25.1 | 0.92× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $13.08 21,791 BUX | 12.2% | 30 | 41.8 | 0.72× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 17 | $10.92 18,192 BUX | 12.2% | 59 | 50.2 | 1.18× |
| AWP | POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 12.0% | $5.54 9,229 BUX | 12.4% | 107 | 100.3 | 1.07× |
| AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 16.0% | $2.65 4,414 BUX | 7.9% | 156 | 133.8 | 1.17× |
| Dreams & Nightmares Casecontainer · Base Grade | 55.0% | $0.58 966 BUX | 5.9% | 440 | 459.8 | 0.96× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedHALAMADRID$5.969,936 BUX$13.0821,791 BUX2.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.96 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 1.0%Covert 2.0%distinguished 3.0%classified 5.0%Ancient 6.0%Restricted 12.0%Legendary 16.0%Base Grade 55.0%best hit —