Veiled Shadows
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$41.05
68,396 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $36.95 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
33.77%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
11.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 67 | $1,119 1,864,987 BUX | 45.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert | 1 in 25 | $126 210,599 BUX | 13.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| M4A4 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $103 170,931 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 17 | $67.28 112,088 BUX | 10.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 14 | $54.21 90,313 BUX | 10.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Tornado Chaos (Foil)sticker · exotic | 22.5% | $7.19 11,978 BUX | 4.4% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| Sticker | Smoke Criminalsticker · blue | 27.0% | $1.23 2,049 BUX | 0.9% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.52× |
| Sticker | Lost In Smoke (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 27.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 0.5% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $41.05 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.5%covert 4.0%industrial 5.0%Covert 6.0%Industrial Grade 7.0%exotic 22.5%blue 27.0%Exotic 27.0%best hit —