Peak Performance
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.09
28,467 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $15.38 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.26%
50 openings, odds method
Variance
4.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 50 openings and 10.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 500 | $691 1,151,206 BUX | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 125 | $172 286,601 BUX | 8.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $122 203,135 BUX | 7.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Nova | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 18.0% | $39.07 65,090 BUX | 45.7% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 40.0% | $5.73 9,546 BUX | 14.9% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | Leaving The Station (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 40.0% | $5.19 8,646 BUX | 13.5% | 22 | 20.0 | 1.10× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New)weapon · consumerCaetanomaster$17.0928,467 BUX$5.739,546 BUX0.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $17.09 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.2%industrial 0.8%Consumer Grade 18.0%consumer 40.0%Remarkable 40.0%best hit —