Supreme Command
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.52
14,196 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.67 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.37%
111 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $241 401,955 BUX | 15.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $57.80 96,294 BUX | 30.1% | 8 | 4.4 | 1.80× |
| Guardian Elite Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 15 | $27.97 46,598 BUX | 23.7% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| Sticker | Global Elite (Foil)sticker · exotic | 10.0% | $8.28 13,794 BUX | 10.8% | 3 | 11.1 | 0.27× |
| The Elite Mr. Muhlik | Elite Crewagent · master | 15.0% | $4.10 6,830 BUX | 8.0% | 17 | 16.6 | 1.02× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 17.5% | $3.33 5,547 BUX | 7.6% | 18 | 19.4 | 0.93× |
| P90 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 23.3% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 2.7% | 28 | 25.8 | 1.08× |
| StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 23.3% | $0.44 733 BUX | 1.3% | 35 | 25.8 | 1.36× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.5214,196 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.05x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil speckdeen$8.5214,196 BUX$3.335,547 BUX0.39x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.5214,196 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.05x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil speckdeen$8.5214,196 BUX$3.335,547 BUX0.39x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.52 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 7.0%classified 4.0%exotic 10.0%master 15.0%mil spec 17.5%#4b69ff 23.3%Mil Spec Grade 23.3%best hit —