Contamination Collection

A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.77

12,946 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $6.99 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

109.38%

607 openings, odds method

Variance

6.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

20 openings · below min

7 days

100.27%±21.87533 openings

30 days

109.38%±20.50607 openings

since tracking started

109.38%±20.50607 openings

-0.5%81.0%162.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	20	48.77%±112.9	—	odds
7d	533	100.27%±21.9	+0.9σ	odds
30d	607	109.38%±20.5	+1.9σ	odds
All	607	109.38%±20.5	+1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 607 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$437 727,242 BUX	6.2%	2	0.6	—
MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$124 207,083 BUX	7.1%	1	2.4	0.41×
Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$124 206,883 BUX	7.1%	5	2.4	2.06×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$68.79 114,604 BUX	20.7%	16	12.7	1.26×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$18.35 30,571 BUX	18.4%	32	42.5	0.75×
CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$6.87 11,445 BUX	14.7%	112	91.0	1.23×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	20.0%	$4.66 7,763 BUX	13.3%	126	121.4	1.04×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	27.5%	$1.63 2,715 BUX	6.4%	164	166.9	0.98×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	27.5%	$1.54 2,565 BUX	6.1%	149	166.9	0.89×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted$7.7712,946 BUX$437727,242 BUX56.18x3d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted$7.7712,946 BUX$437727,242 BUX56.18x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.7712,946 BUX$1.632,715 BUX0.21x2h

AUG | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$7.7712,946 BUX$1.542,565 BUX0.20x2h

CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.7712,946 BUX$6.8711,445 BUX0.88x2h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalPuzamah$7.7712,946 BUX$4.667,763 BUX0.60x2h

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.7712,946 BUX$1.632,715 BUX0.21x8h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$7.7712,946 BUX$4.667,763 BUX0.60x8h

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil speckdeen$7.7712,946 BUX$1.632,715 BUX0.21x8h

CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.7712,946 BUX$6.8711,445 BUX0.88x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$7.77	90.00%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 0.1%mil spec 45.0%classified 0.4%Mythical 27.0%industrial 27.5%best hit $437 (56.18x)