Prestige Arsenal
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.62
62,674 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $33.86 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.05%
152 openings, odds method
Variance
17.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,000 | $4,436 7,390,425 BUX | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 222 | $1,400 2,332,066 BUX | 18.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 167 | $1,064 1,772,207 BUX | 18.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| SCAR-20 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 12.9% | $83.24 138,677 BUX | 31.7% | 23 | 19.6 | 1.17× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 21.0% | $29.49 49,130 BUX | 18.3% | 39 | 31.9 | 1.22× |
| StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 65.0% | $3.12 5,197 BUX | 6.0% | 89 | 98.8 | 0.90× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$37.6262,674 BUX$3.125,197 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$37.6262,674 BUX$29.4949,130 BUX0.78x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$37.6262,674 BUX$3.125,197 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedKronerkongen$37.6262,674 BUX$3.125,197 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$37.6262,674 BUX$3.125,197 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$37.6262,674 BUX$3.125,197 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedKronerkongen$37.6262,674 BUX$29.4949,130 BUX0.78x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$37.6262,674 BUX$3.125,197 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$37.6262,674 BUX$29.4949,130 BUX0.78x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $37.62 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 0.4%classified 0.6%Mil Spec Grade 12.9%restricted 86.0%best hit $1,064 (28.28x)