Celebratory Shots
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.82
26,352 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.24 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.69%
123 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 123 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $205 340,813 BUX | 14.4% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.44× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 25 | $72.90 121,451 BUX | 20.5% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $46.75 77,885 BUX | 16.4% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 10.0% | $21.23 35,369 BUX | 14.9% | 11 | 12.3 | 0.89× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $15.12 25,189 BUX | 15.9% | 15 | 18.5 | 0.81× |
| Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 30.0% | $6.06 10,095 BUX | 12.8% | 46 | 36.9 | 1.25× |
| AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 35.0% | $2.08 3,465 BUX | 5.1% | 38 | 43.1 | 0.88× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$15.8226,352 BUX$205340,813 BUX12.93x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedstrawhatya$15.8226,352 BUX$21.2335,369 BUX1.34x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.8226,352 BUX$21.2335,369 BUX1.34x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.8226,352 BUX$21.2335,369 BUX1.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.82 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 5.0%restricted 40.0%classified 10.0%covert 15.0%Rare 30.0%best hit —