Cupid's Cache
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.49
20,816 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.24 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
177.20%
140 openings, odds method
Variance
29.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 133
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 140 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 400 | $1,023 1,704,901 BUX | 22.8% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| Sticker | LoveYY (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $617 1,028,421 BUX | 27.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 19 | $54.50 90,797 BUX | 25.4% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.50× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $21.91 36,502 BUX | 15.6% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× |
| Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff | 17.0% | $1.99 3,315 BUX | 3.0% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red)graffiti · base | 19.0% | $1.22 2,032 BUX | 2.1% | 25 | 26.6 | 0.94× |
| Sticker | Skin Lover (Lenticular)sticker · Ancient | 20.0% | $1.03 1,715 BUX | 1.8% | 23 | 28.0 | 0.82× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Kiss (Blood Red)graffiti · Base Grade | 30.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 1.9% | 44 | 42.0 | 1.05× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$12.4920,816 BUX$1,0231,704,901 BUX81.90x
★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$12.4920,816 BUX$1,0231,704,901 BUX81.90x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$12.4920,816 BUX$54.5090,797 BUX4.36x
★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$12.4920,816 BUX$1,0231,704,901 BUX81.90x
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$12.4920,816 BUX$54.5090,797 BUX4.36x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$12.4920,816 BUX$21.9136,502 BUX1.75x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.49 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%Extraordinary 0.5%extraordinary 5.3%classified 8.0%#8847ff 17.0%base 19.0%Ancient 20.0%Base Grade 30.0%best hit $1,023 (81.90x)