Prismatic Projection
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.18
20,300 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.97 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.52%
55 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 55 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · Remarkable | 1 in 100 | $206 343,412 BUX | 18.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · remarkable | 1 in 25 | $59.54 99,193 BUX | 21.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $24.23 40,367 BUX | 11.0% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× |
| Sticker | FURIA (Holo) | Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable | 1 in 13 | $16.54 27,555 BUX | 11.3% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 12.5% | $11.01 18,342 BUX | 12.5% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $5.47 9,113 BUX | 7.5% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.85× |
| Sticker | Apeks (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · Exotic | 15.0% | $5.22 8,696 BUX | 7.1% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× |
| Sticker | Astralis (Holo) | Katowice 2019sticker · Remarkable | 40.0% | $2.73 4,548 BUX | 10.0% | 26 | 22.0 | 1.18× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | FURIA (Holo) | Katowice 2019sticker · remarkablefajfussss$12.1820,300 BUX$16.5427,555 BUX1.36x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.18 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRemarkable 41.0%remarkable 11.5%Legendary 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 12.5%Exotic 15.0%best hit —