Night Operative
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.53
27,546 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.88 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.82%
66 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 66 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 133 | $320 533,103 BUX | 16.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 31 | $110 183,576 BUX | 24.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 29 | $102 169,648 BUX | 24.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Cologne 2014sticker · Remarkable | 10.0% | $20.44 34,053 BUX | 13.7% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 18.0% | $5.75 9,579 BUX | 7.0% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× |
| P250 | Dark Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 19.5% | $4.69 7,813 BUX | 6.1% | 8 | 12.9 | 0.62× |
| Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 21.0% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 4.9% | 18 | 13.9 | 1.30× |
| Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic | 24.0% | $2.53 4,214 BUX | 4.1% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.01× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkdeen$16.5327,546 BUX$5.759,579 BUX0.35x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert$16.5327,546 BUX$102169,648 BUX6.16x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkomnuu$16.5327,546 BUX$5.759,579 BUX0.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $16.53 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 0.8%restricted 21.3%Covert 3.5%Remarkable 10.0%industrial 19.5%Consumer Grade 21.0%exotic 24.0%best hit —