Vibrant Valor
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.42
20,698 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.18 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.28%
50 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 50 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 40 | $86.81 144,625 BUX | 19.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 29 | $72.90 121,451 BUX | 22.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.71× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 13 | $20.30 33,819 BUX | 13.6% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.60× |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 12 | $19.14 31,887 BUX | 14.6% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.71× |
| Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 11 | $16.49 27,472 BUX | 14.0% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.5% | $11.84 19,725 BUX | 11.1% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 28.0% | $1.23 2,049 BUX | 3.1% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.14× |
| Prisma 2 Casecontainer · Base Grade | 30.0% | $0.52 866 BUX | 1.4% | 12 | 15.0 | 0.80× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$12.4220,698 BUX$20.3033,819 BUX1.63x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$12.4220,698 BUX$16.4927,472 BUX1.33x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$12.4220,698 BUX$72.90121,451 BUX5.87x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendarymakarass$12.4220,698 BUX$20.3033,819 BUX1.63x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$12.4220,698 BUX$16.4927,472 BUX1.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.42 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 2.5%Covert 3.5%Legendary 7.5%classified 8.5%Restricted 9.5%covert 10.5%restricted 28.0%Base Grade 30.0%best hit —