Visionary Deception
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.61
24,344 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $13.15 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.00%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 68 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert | 1 in 200 | $439 731,490 BUX | 16.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 67 | $138 230,507 BUX | 15.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $74.30 123,783 BUX | 16.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| SG 553 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $33.10 55,144 BUX | 12.6% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $9.43 15,710 BUX | 10.8% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 30.0% | $5.97 9,946 BUX | 13.6% | 29 | 20.4 | 1.42× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 20.0% | $4.58 7,630 BUX | 7.0% | 11 | 13.6 | 0.81× |
| Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic | 25.0% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 6.7% | 15 | 17.0 | 0.88× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.6124,344 BUX$5.979,946 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$14.6124,344 BUX$5.979,946 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.6124,344 BUX$5.979,946 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$14.6124,344 BUX$5.979,946 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.6124,344 BUX$5.979,946 BUX0.41x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.6124,344 BUX$5.979,946 BUX0.41x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.61 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.5%Classified 1.5%classified 23.0%restricted 20.0%Restricted 30.0%exotic 25.0%best hit —