Cryptic Necrosis
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.08
16,786 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $9.07 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.79%
133 openings, odds method
Variance
8.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 133 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $249 415,383 BUX | 27.5% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.26× |
| MP9 | Dark Age (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 33 | $87.65 146,024 BUX | 29.0% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 1 in 22 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 9.7% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.67× |
| M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 1 in 15 | $18.68 31,120 BUX | 13.4% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.39× |
| SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $8.34 13,894 BUX | 6.9% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× |
| UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $7.09 11,811 BUX | 7.8% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× |
| Nova | Ghost Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 19.5% | $1.33 2,215 BUX | 2.9% | 28 | 25.9 | 1.08× |
| Sticker | Skulltorgeiststicker · High Grade | 24.0% | $0.54 899 BUX | 1.4% | 32 | 31.9 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 24.0% | $0.54 899 BUX | 1.4% | 29 | 31.9 | 0.91× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$10.0816,786 BUX$0.54899 BUX0.05x
StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$10.0816,786 BUX$0.54899 BUX0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $10.08 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%#4b69ff 3.0%blue 4.5%industrial 6.5%restricted 7.5%mil spec 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 43.5%High Grade 24.0%best hit —