Ocean's Bounty
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$88.46
147,371 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $79.61 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.92%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $642 1,069,905 BUX | 20.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $217 361,705 BUX | 13.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 13 | $155 257,530 BUX | 14.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $96.98 161,568 BUX | 12.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $95.45 159,019 BUX | 12.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $70.57 117,569 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 50.0% | $22.56 37,584 BUX | 14.2% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedstrawhatya$88.46147,371 BUX$22.5637,584 BUX0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $88.46 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.5%Covert 7.5%classified 10.0%restricted 65.0%best hit —